The Workers’ Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California (WCIRB) has released its Impact of Economic Downturn on California Workers’ Compensation Claim Frequency study. In this study, the WCIRB analyzed historical impacts of economic cycles on workers’ compensation claim frequency, provided forecasts of claim frequency changes in light of the current economic situation and summarized the potential impact of post-termination and COVID-19 claims on claim frequency.
The full study is available in the Research section of the WCIRB website or by clicking the following link:
Key findings in the study include:
- While many factors influence claim frequency, between 1961 and 2017, overall claim frequency decreased modestly more during years of economic recession than during years of expansion. Unlike other claims, the rate of cumulative trauma (CT) claims increased during downturns.
- For industry sectors that were hit the hardest during the 2001 recession and the Great Recession, claim frequency tended to fall along with job losses or fall faster during economic downturns compared to economic expansions.
- Since 2012, about 25 post-termination CT claims were filed for every 1,000 jobs lost. If only 50 percent of the rate of post-termination claims is applied to the 4.3 million Californians who have lost jobs since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, about 54,000 post-termination claims could be filed over the next year, increasing statewide indemnity claim frequency by approximately 25 percent.
WCIRB Research Forum Webinar
The WCIRB will host a free webinar to discuss its Impact of Economic Downturn on California Workers’ Compensation Claim Frequency study. Click on the registration link below to sign up.
Impact of Economic Downturn on CA Workers’ Comp
Thursday, June 4, 2020, 10:00 – 11:00 AM PT
- Dave Bellusci, WCIRB Executive Vice President and Chief Actuary
- Julia Zhang, PhD, WCIRB Managing Director, Medical Analytics
For those unable to attend the live webinar, a recording will be posted in the Research section of the WCIRB website following the event.